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Carmignac Investissement: Letter from the Fund Manager – Q1 2022

  • Autor/en
    David Older
  • Veröffentlicht am
  • Länge
    8 Minuten Lesedauer
  • -9.60%
    Carmignac Investissement’s

    performance in the 1st quarter of 2022 for the A EUR Share class

  • -3.27%
    Reference indicator*’s


    performance in the 1st quarter of 2022

  • 60%
    Of the current portfolio is invested in

    defensive & quality stocks to navigate challenging days ahead.

In the first quarter of 2022, Carmignac Investissement posted -9.60% returns versus -3.27% for its reference indicator mainly because of an underweight in the energy sector, an exposure to high growth/high multiple names and the Chinese exposure.

Performance since the beginning of the year

Last year equity markets climbed the wall of worry, supported by extraordinary liquidity injections by central banks in the aftermath of the Covid crisis. In contrast, over the past 3 months market sentiment has steadily fallen, punctuated by higher inflation prints and a US Federal Reserve seemingly behind the curve. With spiking inflation, higher rates, lower growth and less monetary support, markets corrected on the negative macro backdrop, shrugging off any positive fundamental news. Indeed, despite US companies publishing solid Q421 results (76% of US companies beating on EPS and 68% beating on revenues), more than 50% of companies in the S&P 500 traded below their 250-day moving average over the first quarter. When the conflict broke out in Ukraine, investors were set in risk-off mode, sending indices into a nosedive across regions, chief among them Europe, more exposed to the crisis and its long-term consequences. In China, the regulatory overhang coupled with worries over the country’s neutrality with Russia and its “zero-Covid” policy continued to weigh on the region. A silver lining came with the vice premier Liu He’s speech in mid-March, reaffirming the government’s willingness to support markets and the economy, resulting in a strong rebound of the still depressed Chinese market.

Markets driven by macroeconomics and geopolitical tensions are extremely complicated for bottom-up stock pickers, but such periods can provide opportunities for those discerning investors focusing on innovative business models with secular growth characteristics. This is the opportunity for Carmignac Investissement.

Over the period, Carmignac Investissement posted -9.60% returns versus -3.27% for its reference indicator. The main drag on returns were attributed to:

  • An underweight in the energy sector. Our investment approach resulting in a structural underweight of the traditional energy sector in favor of renewables was dually painful: the energy sector is up 36% since the beginning of the year, representing a substantial relative underperformance for our strategy. Meanwhile, renewable names, with business projects financed over multiple years, were also hurt by rising rates over the period. Most recently, the mounting pressure on European countries to seek alternative to Russia’s exports has been supporting their performance. Over the quarter, we closed our energy underweight by adding Schlumberger and Total.

  • An exposure to high growth/high multiple names at the beginning of the period. These names suffered from rising rates, hurting their valuation. Moreover, as many of them were Covid beneficiaries, markets have been trying to assess the normalized adoption rate of the services they offer. Combined with the macro backdrop, this led to share weakness, sometimes exaggerated on short-term results. While we had steadily reduced or exited names that we felt were the most sensitive to a rising rate backdrop, having halved our exposure to the segment by the end of the quarter, we suffered from some of them still present in the portfolio, including Meta and Delivery Hero.

  • Our Chinese exposure. Our exposure has been twice that of the reference indicator over the period, and has consequently hurt our performance in relative terms, despite the strong rebound in March. Recent government comments related to regulation and US listings are working in favor of the innovative companies that we invest behind China, and we expect this exposure to outperform as the year progresses.

Recent developments

While we expect headline inflation to come down over the next months, we expect core inflation (driven by wage growth and housing) to continue to be stubbornly high, leading to an ongoing hawkish perspective of the US Federal Reserve. Additionally, the goal of reducing reliance on historic energy sources and commodity trading partners will come with at a higher cost. Covid lockdowns could also further affect international trade, as China struggles to manage a Covid wave. Meanwhile, growth which was already slowing is expected to slow even further, notably in Europe, where the high energy-driven inflation is considerably weighing on consumers’ willingness to spend and company margins. The dynamics at play pose the risk of stagflation - slow growth and high inflation.

Throughout the quarter we have strived to maintain our focus on innovative and sustainable companies, within major global themes, as such companies ultimately offer the best sources of long-term returns. We have adjusted our portfolio construction in order to optimize performance drivers in an environment of higher inflation and slower growth as well as to prepare the portfolio to rebound once markets have passed through this period of risk aversion.

First of all, we believe high visibility, secular growth names should remain a core part of equity positioning going forward. These companies tend to outperform when economies are slowing, as investors are willing to pay a premium for self-sustaining growth. Within this segment, we are wary of high valuations, as these are highly sensitive to rising rates. Fortunately, many attractive sectors have seen their multiples contract, and now offer compelling investment opportunities.

Within growth investments, we favor defensive names, those offering essential goods and services, for which demand is relatively inelastic to increases in prices. In an inflationary environment, we also favor quality, characterized by high historical profitability, low levels of debt, and high levels of cash, allowing them to better weather rising rates and costs.

Finally, we do think investors should balance their growth investments with some exposure to sectors that benefit from an inflationary backdrop like energy, or post-Covid reopening demand like travel. Indeed, geopolitical tensions and supply pressures are supporting energy prices and the ecosystem around them, likely to create longer term growth dynamics in a sector generally seen as cyclical. Also, while rising prices are usually ominous for the consumer discretionary sector, we are seeing the signs of a strong recovery in leisure travel, as consumers are eager to enjoy reopening economies after two years of Covid-related mobility restrictions.

Breaking down our performance drivers


Defensive (~24% of the portfolio)

  • Healthcare. On top of being defensive, healthcare comprises a pool of highly innovative companies that are revolutionizing the sector, while contributing to sustainable development goals like good health and well-being. Demographic changes are fueling more advances as well, as the world population is aging. We increased our allocation to the sector with the strengthening of existing positions like Novo Nordisk, Danaher, Pfizer, Eli Lilly and new additions, such as Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche, the world's leading provider of cancer treatments, as well as Humana, the insurer focused on the growing US Medicare market.

  • Consumer staples. We also boosted the defensiveness of the portfolio by increasing our exposure to consumer staples, where we’ve had little exposure in recent years. As inflation or a slowing economy reduces consumers’ purchasing power, they tend to focus their spending on essentials. As a result, consumer staples’ companies can set prices higher, increasing topline growth and even more than compensating for higher costs. Just as with any other names in the portfolio, we look at how companies in the sector can leverage innovation to their advantage. One new example within our portfolio is AB Inbev which has developed a digital platform, opened to third parties, that is disrupting the traditional sales model by providing wholesalers with key insight into consumer demand. Another example is Diageo, which benefits from the spirits’ premiumization trend and is particularly levered to the fast-growing tequila market.

Quality (~36% of the portfolio)

  • Software/digitization. Software comprises a significant portion of our investments around digitization. The digital-transformation trend is just starting, as only 10% of enterprise IT spending has shifted to the cloud so far, expected to triple by 2025. We favor cloud infrastructure providers Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet as well as software companies utilizing the cloud like cybersecurity leader Palo Alto Networks. Cybersecurity will continue to be a vital part of corporate spend in the coming years, as there is approximately $1Tn in annual losses due to cybersecurity breaches but just $130Bn of annual spend on security software, and this gap is only expected to widen.
    In addition to solid fundamentals, many large technology companies continue to send positive signals to the markets, through buybacks (Alphabet bought back 50 billion dollars’ worth of shares last year), stock splits (Amazon 20:1), major investments (top 5 spending $100Bn of capex annually) and mergers/acquisitions (Microsoft for Activision, Alphabet for cybersecurity company Mandiant). Finally, software’s multiples have contracted by almost 30% since the beginning of the year, making this sector more attractive.

  • Digital consumption. The adoption of digital consumption was rapidly accelerated by Covid, but recent slowing growth of some segments worried investors about the ongoing growths rate for these services. We see this as a normalization of growth that should remain robust. We thus continue to favor the overall segment of digital consumption, with investments in ecommerce players in both developed (Amazon) and Emerging (Mercadolibre, JD.com) markets, as well as streaming service companies like Universal Music.

  • Luxury. We maintain an exposure to luxury names, notably our historical holding of Hermes, but also LVMH. While displaying high valuations, these are quality companies with high historical profitability and healthy balance sheets, that have shown resilience in both inflationary and recessionary environments.

Energy (~8% of the portfolio)

  • Energy. Our exposure is spread over both traditional energy companies (Schlumberger, TotalEnergies), whose performance is correlated to rising oil and gas prices, and renewable companies (Orsted, Sunrun), which are benefiting from renewed interest as societies seek to be less dependent on Russian exports. It should be noted that while we don’t usually invest in traditional energy companies, Schlumberger has in the past years heavily invested in the digitalization of all its activities, as well as in new technologies, notably via artificial intelligence in order to improve productivity and optimize the search for and extraction of resources - clearly an "innovation" aspect that falls within the scope of our strategy. Finally, both Schlumberger and TotalEnergies are very active in decarbonization and actively invest in the development of new energy solutions. TotalEnergies invested hundreds of millions of dollars to convert part of its legacy oil refineries into biorefineries, qualifying it as a transitioning business in the Oil & Gas industry.

Stocks linked to the reopening of economies (~10% of the portfolio)

  • Tourism. After two years of consumer fear and international mobility restrictions, we believe we will now witness a sustained inflection in tourism demand. We have therefore reinforced and initiated positions related to the reopening of economies and tourism/leisure (hotels, airlines, travel agencies, amusement parks, payments). Core positions include Uber, Booking, Mastercard, Safran and Airbus.

High growth names (~5% of the portfolio).

Although limited, we maintain a selective exposure to some high growth names in innovative segments

  • Electrification. We are constructive on electrification and the ecosystem around it. We like pure electric vehicle players but also companies that are investing to improve battery usage, like CATL in China and LG Energy Solutions in Korea. We think the future of mobility is not only about electrification, but also about autonomous driving, with advances greatly supported by artificial intelligence.

  • Fintech. Digital adoption in payments and retail commerce is growing rapidly and we expect mobile payments to comprise two-fifths of in-store purchases in the US, quadruple the current level in the next five years. In emerging markets, the effect could arrive even sooner as these countries transition directly from cash to mobile payments without ever utilizing plastic cards. Fintechs are contributing to the no-poverty sustainable goal, by offering credit opportunities to low income people in Emerging countries. Block (Square) is one example of fintech we own.

China (~5% of the portfolio).

  • Benefiting from vibrant growth and fast developing consumer trends, China remains a key focus in our search for innovative secular growth names. Recent announcements by China’s Liu He set the tone for a potential smoothing of regulatory measures and a future easing of financial conditions to support markets and the economy. Meanwhile, valuations have reached attractive low levels compared with the historical average. For example, the Hang Seng trades at 7 times forward P/E, well below historical average and at similar levels than in 2003, despite the country’s considerable growth over the period. We continue to focus on domestic names of the “new economy” benefiting from solid trends such as healthcare, digitization and electrification.

Cash (7% of the portfolio)

  • Our high cash holdings (we are usually 100% invested) gives us the opportunity to invest in new opportunities or strengthen existing convictions should markets continue to be volatile.

Carmignac Investissement

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Carmignac Investissement A EUR Acc

ISIN: FR0010148981

Empfohlene Mindestanlagedauer

Geringstes Risiko Höchstes Risiko

Potenziell niedrigere Rendite Potenziell höhere Rendite

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Hauptrisiken des Fonds

AKTIENRISIKO: Änderungen des Preises von Aktien können sich auf die Performance des Fonds auswirken, deren Umfang von externen Faktoren, Handelsvolumen sowie der Marktkapitalisierung abhängt.

WÄHRUNGSRISIKO: Das Währungsrisiko ist mit dem Engagement in einer Währung verbunden, die nicht die Bewertungswährung des Fonds ist.

ZINSRISIKO: Das Zinsrisiko führt bei einer Veränderung der Zinssätze zu einem Rückgang des Nettoinventarwerts.

RISIKO IN VERBINDUNG MIT DER VERWALTUNG MIT ERMESSENSSPIELRAUM: Die von der Verwaltungsgesellschaft vorweggenommene Entwicklung der Finanzmärkte wirkt sich direkt auf die Performance des Fonds aus, die von den ausgewählten Titeln abhängt.

Der Fonds ist mit einem Kapitalverlustrisiko verbunden.

* Risiko Skala von KIID (Wesentliche Anlegerinformationen). Das Risiko 1 ist nicht eine risikolose Investition. Dieser Indikator kann sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern.

Carmignac Investissement A EUR Acc

ISIN: FR0010148981
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (YTD)
?
Year to date
Carmignac Investissement A EUR Acc +8.90 % +14.27 % +10.39 % +1.29 % +2.13 % +4.76 % -14.17 % +24.75 % +33.65 % +3.97 % -14.32 %
Referenzindikator +11.70 % +17.50 % +18.61 % +8.76 % +11.09 % +8.89 % -4.85 % +28.93 % +6.65 % +27.54 % -6.98 %

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3 Jahre 5 Jahre 10 Jahre
Carmignac Investissement A EUR Acc +8.21 % +4.90 % +6.09 %
Referenzindikator +11.34 % +10.61 % +11.11 %

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Die Wertentwicklung der Vergangenheit ist keine Garantie für die zukünftige Wertentwicklung. Die hier dargestellte Performance des Fonds beinhaltet alle jährlich auf Fondsebene anfallenden Kosten. Um den dargestellten Anlagebetrag von EUR 100 zu erreichen, hätte ein Anleger bei Erhebung eines Ausgabeaufschlags von X% XXX,XX EUR aufwenden müssen. Eventuell beim Anleger anfallende Depotgebühren würden das Anlageergebnis mindern.

Quelle: Carmignac am 31/08/2022

Maximaler Ausgabeaufschlag zahlbar an die Vertriebsstellen : 4,00%
Rücknahmegebühr : 0,00%
Laufende Kosten : 2.43%
Conversion Fee : 0%
Fixe Verwaltungsgebühr : 1,50%
Performance Gebühr : 20,00%

Marketing-Anzeige. Bitte lesen Sie den KIID /Prospekt bevor Sie eine endgültige Anlageentscheidung treffen. Dieses Dokument ist für professionelle Kunden bestimmt.​

Diese Unterlagen dürfen ohne die vorherige Genehmigung der Verwaltungsgesellschaft weder ganz noch in Auszügen reproduziert werden. Diese Unterlagen stellen weder ein Zeichnungsangebot noch eine Anlageberatung dar. Diese Unterlagen stellen keine buchhalterische, rechtliche oder steuerliche Beratung dar und sollten nicht als solche herangezogen werden. Diese Unterlagen dienen ausschließlich zu Informationszwecken und dürfen nicht zur Beurteilung der Vorzüge einer Anlage in Wertpapieren oder Anteilen, die in diesen Unterlagen genannt werden, oder zu anderen Zwecken herangezogen werden. Die in diesen Unterlagen enthaltenen Informationen können unvollständig sein und ohne vorherige Mitteilung geändert werden. Sie entsprechen dem Stand der Informationen zum Erstellungsdatum der Unterlagen, stammen aus internen sowie externen, von Carmignac als zuverlässig erachteten Quellen und sind unter Umständen unvollständig. Darüber hinaus besteht keine Garantie für die Richtigkeit dieser Informationen. Dementsprechend wird die Richtigkeit und Zuverlässigkeit dieser Informationen nicht gewährleistet und jegliche Haftung im Zusammenhang mit Fehlern und Auslassungen (einschließlich der Haftung gegenüber Personen aufgrund von Nachlässigkeit) wird von Carmignac, dessen Niederlassungen, Mitarbeitern und Vertretern abgelehnt.​

​Wertentwicklungen der Vergangenheit lassen keine Rückschlüsse auf zukünftige Wertverläufe zu. Wertentwicklung nach Gebühren (keine Berücksichtigung von Ausgabeaufschlägen die durch die Vertriebsstelle erhoben werden können)​

Die Rendite von Anteilen, die nicht gegen das Währungsrisiko abgesichert sind, kann infolge von Währungsschwankungen steigen oder fallen.​

Die Bezugnahme auf bestimmte Werte oder Finanzinstrumente dient als Beispiel, um bestimmte Werte, die in den Portfolios der Carmignac-Fondspalette enthalten sind bzw. waren, vorzustellen. Hierdurch soll keine Werbung für eine Direktanlage in diesen Instrumenten gemacht werden, und es handelt sich nicht um eine Anlageberatung. Die Verwaltungsgesellschaft unterliegt nicht dem Verbot einer Durchführung von Transaktionen in diesen Instrumenten vor Veröffentlichung der Mitteilung. Die Portfolios der Carmignac-Fondspalette können ohne Vorankündigung geändert werden.​

Der Verweis auf ein Ranking oder eine Auszeichnung, ist keine Garantie für die zukünftigen Ergebnisse des OGAW oder des Managers.​

Risiko Skala von KIID (Wesentliche Anlegerinformationen). Das Risiko 1 ist nicht eine risikolose Investition. Dieser Indikator kann sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern.​ Die empfohlene Anlagedauer stellt eine Mindestanlagedauer dar und keine Empfehlung, die Anlage am Ende dieses Zeitraums zu verkaufen.​

​Morningstar Rating™ : © Morningstar, Inc. Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Die hierin enthaltenen Informationen: sind für Morningstar und/oder ihre Inhalte-Anbieter urheberrechtlich geschützt; dürfen nicht vervielfältigt oder verbreitet werden; und deren Richtigkeit, Vollständigkeit oder Aktualität wird nicht garantiert. Weder Morningstar noch deren Inhalte-Anbieter sind verantwortlich für etwaige Schäden oder Verluste, die aus der Verwendung dieser Informationen entstehen.​

Der Zugang zu den Fonds kann für bestimmte Personen oder Länder Einschränkungen unterliegen. Diese Unterlagen sind nicht für Personen in Ländern bestimmt, in denen die Unterlagen oder die Bereitstellung dieser Unterlagen (aufgrund der Nationalität oder des Wohnsitzes dieser Person oder aus anderen Gründen) verboten sind. Personen, für die solche Verbote gelten, dürfen nicht auf diese Unterlagen zugreifen. Die Besteuerung ist von den jeweiligen Umständen der betreffenden Person abhängig. Die Fonds sind in Asien, Japan und Nordamerika nicht zum Vertrieb an Privatanleger registriert und sind nicht in Südamerika registriert. Carmignac-Fonds sind in Singapur als eingeschränkte ausländische Fonds registriert (nur für professionelle Anleger). Die Fonds wurden nicht gemäß dem „US Securities Act“ von 1933 registriert. Gemäß der Definition der US-amerikanischen Verordnung „US Regulation S“ und FATCA dürfen die Fonds weder direkt noch indirekt zugunsten oder im Namen einer „US-Person“ angeboten oder verkauft werden. Die Risiken, Gebühren und laufenden Kosten sind in den wesentlichen Anlegerinformationen (Key Investor Information Document, WAI/KID) beschrieben. Die wesentlichen Anlegerinformationen müssen dem Zeichner vor der Zeichnung ausgehändigt werden. Der Zeichner muss die wesentlichen Anlegerinformationen lesen. Anleger können einen teilweisen oder vollständigen Verlust ihres Kapitals erleiden, da das Kapital der Fonds nicht garantiert ist. Die Fonds sind mit dem Risiko eines Kapitalverlusts verbunden. Die Verwaltungsgesellschaft kann den Vertrieb in Ihrem Land jederzeit einstellen.

Carmignac Portfolio bezieht sich auf die Teilfonds der Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, einer Investmentgesellschaft luxemburgischen Rechts, die der OGAW-Richtlinie oder AIFM- Richtlinie entspricht.Bei den Fonds handelt es sich um Investmentfonds in der Form von vertraglich geregeltem Gesamthandseigentum (FCP), die der OGAW-Richtlinie nach französischem Recht entsprechen. ​