Carmignac Portfolio Climate Transition: Letter from the Fund Manager

  • Autor/en
    Michel Wiskirski
  • Veröffentlicht am
  • Länge
    5 Minuten Lesedauer
  • +2.04%
    Carmignac Portfolio Climate Transition performance

    in the 2nd quarter of 2023 for the A EUR Acc share class

  • +5.73%
    Reference indicator’s performance

    in the 2nd quarter of 2023 for MSCI AC World Index Net Return (EUR)

  • +7.13%
    Performance of the Fund Year to date

    versus +11.45% for the reference indicator

During the second quarter of 2023, the return of Carmignac Portfolio Climate Transition (A share class) was +2.04%, against its reference indicator, which rose 5.73%. The Fund has posted a performance of +7.13% year to date, versus its reference indicator +11.45%.

Quarterly Performance Review

The macroeconomic backdrop was dominated by a large number of divergences, both geographic and sectoral, accompanied by a global disinflationary trend. The United States came through the quarter in fine fettle, with growth slowing but resilient, and inflation receding. While the US manufacturing sector clearly showed signs of weakness and even fragility, the service sector held up admirably. The very good financial health of households, characterized by a very substantial savings reserve accumulated during the pandemic period, was one of the main driving forces behind the good health of the US service sector. Backed by a robust US job market (with a historically high ratio of job vacancies to job seekers) and sharply rising wages, household consumption of services surprised on the upside. This economic resilience was accompanied by a reduction in inflationary pressures, contributing to an improvement in the real purchasing power of economic agents. This resilience led to a rise in US nominal and real interest rates. This was accompanied by a very good performance by US equities, particularly technology stocks, as evidenced by the performance of some of our holdings like Ansys and Autodesk. The quarter was also marked by the emergence of a new theme: artificial intelligence. While we are still in the early stages of its application in the real economy, artificial intelligence will undoubtedly shake up many sectors. The energy transition is set to benefit fully. Better management of power grids, greater efficiency in green energy generation, lower costs and greater predictability of supply and demand are just some of the benefits expected from artificial intelligence. At the heart of this new technological revolution is the semiconductor sector (graphics cards, memory, etc.), which has benefited from widespread initial interest, as witnessed by the rise in some of our stocks over the quarter (Taiwan Semiconductors Manufacturing, Samsung).

While the United States showed surprising economic health, the same cannot be said of the Chinese and European economies. The long-awaited reopening of the Chinese economy, following years of restrictions due to the pandemic, failed to live up to expectations. Household consumption of both goods and services has not really rebounded, except in very timid proportions. China's manufacturing sector also remained lackluster, benefiting neither from a rebound in external demand nor from reinvigorated domestic demand. Moreover, the real estate sector remains in dire straits (overcapacity, insufficient demand, sectoral over indebtedness) and continues to weigh on the wider economy, no longer contributing to its growth - quite the contrary. This disappointing reopening, to put it mildly, weighed on several commodities during the quarter, as evidenced by the decline in oil, as well as a good number of base metals such as copper and iron ore.

The European economy, for its part, also showed a lackluster level of activity. While the fall in commodity prices, particularly energy, was welcome (European gas prices fell over the quarter), the European manufacturing sector was likely in contraction during the quarter, given the weakness of business survey indicators (German PMI close to 40 and new orders below the 40 mark). While domestic demand failed to materialize, Chinese weakness exacerbated the deterioration in our European industries. In view of these sluggish economic indicators, we reduced some of our holdings, such as Schneider Electric, which had appreciated sharply since the start of the year. European stocks in the renewable energy sector suffered from further setbacks at Siemens Energy's wind power subsidiary. These weighed on the performance of some of our holdings, such as Vestas and Orsted, which we decided to increase in view of the idiosyncratic nature of the problems mentioned by Siemens Energy.

How is the fund positioned?

The fund maintains a strong exposure to renewable energy generators both on the other side of the Atlantic and on the old continent, as evidenced by our large holdings in Nextera Energy, RWE and SSE. These stocks should continue to benefit gradually from accelerated capital deployment against the backdrop of the Inflation Reduction Act. In addition, our broad exposure to the power semiconductor value chain remains fully relevant, given the increasingly intensive use of power semiconductors in the broader energy transition. Finally, we retain a significant industrial allocation, notably in recycling (Waste Management) and water treatment (Ecolab, Danaher).

What is our outlook for the coming months?

While a number of uncertainties remain, notably in terms of inflation and global growth, powerful green public policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act in the US attracted a great deal of capital spending at the start of the year and should support the investment cycle across the Atlantic and beyond. In this respect, we have seen numerous announcements in the field of batteries for electric vehicles from players such as LG Chem, as well as large-scale renewable energy projects which should continue to benefit our green infrastructure stocks such as Mastec.

Carmignac Portfolio Climate Transition

A sustainable equity fund acting for climate change mitigation

Discover the fund page

Carmignac Portfolio Climate Transition A EUR Acc

ISIN: LU0164455502

Empfohlene Mindestanlagedauer

Geringstes Risiko Höchstes Risiko

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Hauptrisiken des Fonds

AKTIENRISIKO: Änderungen des Preises von Aktien können sich auf die Performance des Fonds auswirken, deren Umfang von externen Faktoren, Handelsvolumen sowie der Marktkapitalisierung abhängt.

RISIKO IN VERBINDUNG MIT ROHSTOFFEN: Schwankende Rohstoffpreise und die Volatilität dieses Sektors können zu einem Rückgang des Nettoinventarwerts führen.

WÄHRUNGSRISIKO: Das Währungsrisiko ist mit dem Engagement in einer Währung verbunden, die nicht die Bewertungswährung des Fonds ist.

RISIKO IN VERBINDUNG MIT DER VERWALTUNG MIT ERMESSENSSPIELRAUM: Die von der Verwaltungsgesellschaft vorweggenommene Entwicklung der Finanzmärkte wirkt sich direkt auf die Performance des Fonds aus, die von den ausgewählten Titeln abhängt.

Der Fonds ist mit einem Kapitalverlustrisiko verbunden.

Carmignac Portfolio Climate Transition A EUR Acc

ISIN: LU0164455502
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (YTD)
Year to date
Carmignac Portfolio Climate Transition A EUR Acc +7.86 % -16.16 % +21.68 % +5.51 % -17.70 % +14.79 % +4.51 % +10.39 % -15.09 % +1.83 % +10.06 %
Referenzindikator -2.23 % -19.66 % +41.68 % +5.15 % -9.58 % +18.78 % -11.09 % +27.54 % -13.01 % +18.06 % +14.72 %

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3 Jahre 5 Jahre 10 Jahre
Carmignac Portfolio Climate Transition A EUR Acc -0.67 % +2.55 % +0.75 %
Referenzindikator +9.06 % +6.72 % +4.46 %

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Quelle: Carmignac am 28/06/2024

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